Findings

• Revised Baseline & Projection
  • 2030 emissions under CLE scenario: 369 Mt, i.e., 14 Mt (4%) lower than the 2021 pre-Pledge baseline.
  • Reduction due to slower gas market growth + waste regulations in Europe & North America.
• Ambition Gap
  • Full execution of current NDCs + Methane Action Plans → only 8% reduction below 2020 levels by 2030.
  • Far below the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) goal of 30% cut by 2030.
• Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR)
  • Implementing all MTFR measures → 32% reduction by 2030 (131 Mt).
  • Could avoid 0.2°C of warming by 2050 & prevent 180,000+ premature deaths per year by 2030.
• Cost-Effectiveness
  • 80% of MTFR potential (109 Mt/year) can be achieved at very low cost.
  • Waste sector yields net savings of US$9 billion/year through biogas capture and utilisation.
• Sectoral Mitigation Potential
  • Energy sector: 72% of global technical potential (largest, cheapest).
  • Agriculture: 18%.
  • Waste: 10%.
• Geographic Concentration
  • The G20+ group (which includes the EU-24, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and New Zealand) is responsible for 65% of emissions and 72% of the global mitigation potential.
  • Hold 72% of mitigation potential.
• Policy Progress
  • 127 countries now include methane-related measures in NDCs (65% of Paris Agreement parties).
  • Only six countries have GMP-aligned, quantifiable methane reduction targets: Canada, USA, Japan, Norway, Moldova, Vietnam.

Major Sources of Emission

• Agriculture (42%, 146 Mt): Dominated by enteric fermentation from livestock (76% of agricultural emissions) and rice cultivation (21%).
• Energy (38%, 135 Mt): Comprises oil and gas production (64 Mt from upstream, 17 Mt from downstream) and coal mining (43 Mt).
• Waste (20%, 71 Mt): Primarily from municipal solid waste in landfills (37 Mt) and wastewater (30 Mt from domestic and industrial).

Implication

• Health & Productivity Loss: CLE pathway → 24,000 extra deaths, 2.5 Mt crop losses, and 6.9 million labour hours lost annually due to ozone exposure.
• Regional Disparities: Non-G20+ regions may see methane rise: +16% by 2030 and +53% by 2050.
• Data Integrity Crisis: Fossil fuel methane is grossly underreported; measured levels often double official estimates.
• Locked-in Emissions: Waste methane lasts decades—lack of early landfill gas capture → lost mitigation opportunities after 2030.
• Finance Gap: Current finance: US$13.7 bn/year vs US$127 bn/year needed to meet MTFR.

Recommendation

• Measurement-Based Regulation
  • Expand satellite + airborne measurement for accurate MRV.
  • Follow EU Methane Regulation & OGMP 2.0 standards.
• Sector-Specific Policies
  • Energy: LDAR mandates; ban routine venting/flaring.
  • Waste: Source segregation + landfill gas capture.
  • Agriculture: Ban residue burning; alternate wetting-drying in rice.
• Finance Solutions
  • Concessional finance & risk-sharing tools for developing economies.
  • Redirect part of the US$635 bn global harmful agri subsidies.
• Stronger National Targets
  • Convert GMP commitments into quantified, time-bound methane targets within NDCs.
• Integration with Decarbonization
  • Link methane mitigation with deep energy transition + sustainable diets to reach 53% reduction by 2050.