Why in the news?

  • The latest Sample Registration Survey Statistical report shows that the birth rate in India has declined, with a dip in the Total Fertility Rate.

Crude Birth rate (CBR)

  • What is it?:
    • It is the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 people in the population, estimated at mid-year.
    • It is called “crude” because it does not consider age or sex distribution of the population.
  • Features:
    • Simple and widely used fertility indicator.
    • Does not adjust for population composition
  • Current Status in India (SRS 2023):
    • India’s CBR declined from 19.1 (2022) to 18.4 (2023).
    • Highest: Bihar (25.8)
    • Lowest: Tamil Nadu (12)
  • Significance:
    • Indicator of population growth trends.
    • Used in planning healthcare, education, and welfare policies.
    • Helps in demographic transition analysis.
  • Limitations:
    • Does not account for: Age-specific fertility, Sex ratio differences nor Regional population composition.
    • Can be misleading for policy if used alone → better complemented with Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs).

Total Fertility rate (TFR)

  • What is it?:
    •  The average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her lifetime, if she were to experience the prevailing age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) throughout her reproductive years (15–49 years).
    • Unlike CBR, TFR accounts for age-specific fertility, making it a more refined indicator of fertility behaviour.
  • Features:
    • Expressed as children per woman.
    • Replacement Level Fertility (RLF): TFR of ~2.1 in most developing countries is considered the replacement level which ensures population stability in the long run.
    • Sensitive to family planning, education, women’s empowerment, and health interventions.
  • Current Status in India (SRS 2023):
    • India’s TFR declined to 1.9 in 2023 (first fall after two years).
    • Earlier: 2.0 (2021 & 2022)
    • Highest: Bihar (2.8)
    • Lowest: Delhi (1.2)
    • 18 States/UTs have reported TFR below replacement level.
  • Significance:
    • Reliable measure of population growth potential.
    • Used in demographic transition analysis (India has entered Phase III–IV)
    • Helps in monitoring family planning programmes like Mission Parivar Vikas, National Population Policy 2000.
    • Strong link with socio-economic development indicators – higher the literacy & income, lower the TFR.
  • Limitations:
    • Does not reflect regional disparities adequately when presented at the national level.
    • Assumes fertility patterns remain constant across reproductive years, which may change due to migration, health shocks, or policy changes.