Why in the news?

  • Pakistan – Afghanistan (Taliban) witnesses a war-like situation along the Durand Line.

Pakistan–Afghanistan Conflict and its Implications on India

  • Major Causes of the Conflict:
    • Militant Sanctuaries:
      • Pakistan accuses the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and allied groups of using Afghan territory to launch attacks.
      • The Taliban regime denies these claims, calling them internal Pakistani problems.
      • Failure of cooperation between intelligence agencies has worsened mistrust.
    • Durand Line Dispute:
      • The Durand Line (2,640 km) is recognized by Pakistan as the official border, but Afghanistan rejects its legitimacy.
      • Frequent border skirmishes occur due to fencing, new outposts, and encroachments.
      • The issue has become a symbol of sovereignty for both nations.
    • Cross-Border Strikes and Retaliations:
      • Pakistan has conducted air and drone strikes inside Afghan territory, targeting alleged TTP hideouts.
      • Afghanistan has responded with artillery fire and ambushes, claiming to defend its sovereignty.
      • Dozens of casualties reported on both sides; key border crossings closed.
    • Domestic Political Pressures:
      • Pakistan faces economic crisis, terrorism, and political instability, prompting aggressive posturing.
      • Taliban faces legitimacy issues and internal factions, needing to assert independence from Pakistan.
      • Both sides use nationalism to consolidate internal support.
  • Implications for India:
    • Security and Terrorism Risks:
      • Shift in militant movements could divert extremist activity toward India.
      • Instability in Pakistan’s northwest may increase arms and ideology flow into Jammu & Kashmir.
      • Pakistan might use proxy or hybrid warfare to distract from its western troubles.
      • India must maintain heightened intelligence and border vigilance.
    • Diplomatic and Regional Leverage:
      • India’s re-engagement with Afghanistan through humanitarian aid and development projects strengthens goodwill.
      • The crisis weakens Pakistan’s standing, giving India diplomatic space in Kabul and Central Asia.
      • India can project itself as a stabilizing and humanitarian power in South Asia.
      • Potential to expand cooperation with Iran, Russia, and Central Asian nations on regional security and connectivity.
    • Economic and Connectivity Impact:
      • Border tensions disrupt trade and transit corridors linking South and Central Asia.
      • India’s Chabahar-Central Asia connectivity vision faces obstacles due to instability.
      • Pakistan’s growing dependence on China and CPEC increases China’s strategic footprint near India’s borders.
    • Strategic and Military Calculations:
      • Pakistan’s western focus could temporarily ease pressure on India’s western border.
      • However, Pakistan might provoke localized tensions in Kashmir to divert attention.
      • India must pursue strong deterrence with diplomatic restraint to avoid escalation.
      • Increased cyber and information warfare expected during crises.
    • Domestic and Regional Challenges:
      • India’s limited leverage in Afghanistan due to absence of a military presence.
      • Risk of overextension if India tries to balance multiple strategic fronts simultaneously.
      • Need to coordinate with global powers (U.S., China, Russia, Iran) without direct entanglement.